عنوان مقاله [English]
Total factor productivity refers to the effectiveness of output generated by the combined effects of different inputs. Compared to the traditional methods of calculating single-factor productivity, total factor productivity has a full attention to inputs and better reflects the overall effectiveness of an economic system. Due to the importance of total factor productivity, it is essential to know about its future and changes. Increasing or decreasing the efficiency of a country is one of the important and effective factors in changing economic conditions. Therefore, measuring productivity can be used to monitor changes in living standards, effectiveness, or competitiveness of the economy.The best indicator that indicates total productivity, is total factor productivity (TFP). Considering the factors affecting the total factor
productivity based on Fernands(2014) and the experts' opinions and the multivariate linear regression of the indicators by SPSS software, the model is
developed. Because of above reasons, in this research, a system dynamics model
has been developed to forecast the results of the actions and policies applied to total factor productivity with an accuracy of 93.2% for Iran. Data of the factors affecting the productivity are extracted from the website of Iran's Statistics Center, the World Bank and Inter development Bank of America for the years 2005 to 2019.
Because Vensim provides an integrated framework for conceptualizing, constructing, simulating, analyzing, optimizing, and expanding models for complex dynamic systems, it has been used for its great speed and effectiveness. Independent variables affecting the model include:
1) Net rate of increase of population
2) Human capital Index and
3) Physical Capital Stock that affect
other parameters. Based on developed model, it is clear that the improvement of
the total factor productivity in the country needs change in the three above
variables simultaneously or individually or subgroups of them. But we should be
careful about their amoun.