عنوان مقاله [English]
In this paper, we have developed a novel approach to reliability maintenance of one-shot systems such as military missiles and rockets. The reliability estimation and maintenance of these stretegic products are crucial and challenging, and the area has not yet been fully developed. In our new approach, we take a sample of the finished products and deconstruct it into their parts. These parts are then further divided, according to their intrinsic nature ,into the class of testable parts with destruction, the class of testable parts without destruction and the class of non-testable parts. We have considered that the first two classes of parts have increasing rate of failure, while the third class of parts has a constant rate of failure. We apply destructive and non-destructive tests according to the state-of-the-art testing technology and the cost associated with it. We then have integrated concepts and techniques from maintenance planning, condition monitoring, Genetic Algorithm, Bayesian method, and variance propagation to optimize the relibility of standing products. From maintenace planning, we find the optimal inspection period. From condition monitoring, we learn how to perform non-destructive tests. By using genetic algorithm, we estimate nea-optimal number of samples for each part. Also, Bayesian method is used to estimate the system reliability when the sample size is small which is the case for one-shot systems. In fact, through Baysian process, the reliability information obtained by the new tests is integrated into the prior estimations in order to minimize the sample size. Finally, by variance propogation technique, we communicate the mean and variance data estimated at the lower part level up to higher level of sub systems and the total system. This new approach enables us to estimate the reliability of the total system using the reliability information of the constituent parts. Our aim is to maintain the reliability of stand-pile products while the life cycle cost is also minimized. We have tested the proposed approach on the sounding rocket separation system of the explorer missile system built in Iran.