نوع مقاله : پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 -استاد دانشکده مدیریت صنعتی و فناوری دانشگاه تهران
2 'گروه مدیریت صنعتی ، دانشکده مدیریت،واحد تهران مرکزی ،دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی. تهران ، ایران
3 گروه مدیریت صنعتی ،دانشکده مدیریت ،دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد تهران مرکز
4 گروه مدیریت صنعتی ، دانشکده مدیریت ،واحد تهران مرکزی ،دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی ، تهران ، ایران.
چکیده
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
In this research, a system dynamics approach has been employed to model and simulate the structural dynamics of capacity development for power transmission, specifically focusing on substations operating at 400, 230, 232, and 66-63 kilovolts. The model takes into account the exogenous factors of electricity demand and supply. This study reviews previous domestic and international research, providing a suitable framework for analyzing investment policies in the transmission industry. The diagram of subsystems incorporates variables such as inflation, electricity demand, and electricity supply in an exogenous manner. In the causal loop diagram, key variables including existing transmission capacity, equipment depreciation, equipment age, maintenance costs, transmission network losses, and transformer failure probability are considered, with both direct and indirect relationships among them modeled accordingly. After establishing the stock and flow diagram model, mathematical relationships between the model variables were incorporated. Various conventional validation methods for system dynamics models were utilized to ascertain the model's credibility, including boundary tests, structural evaluation tests, and behavioral reproduction tests. The results from the behavioral reproduction test indicated that the model accurately simulated the past 40 years of transmission capacity with over 90% accuracy. Upon validating the model, three scenarios were simulated within this domain. The outcomes reveal that in the second scenario, where electricity demand is optimistically projected to increase due to savings or other changes over a 20-year horizon, the annual construction of transmission capacity calculated by the model results in the smallest gap between required and actual capacity. Conversely, in the third scenario, where both electricity demand increases and annual capacity construction continues based on a previous five-year average, the largest discrepancy between required and actual transmission capacity is expected by the year 1420. The numerical results from these three scenarios concerning the construction of transmission capacity by substation type are presented in this paper.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
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